January 5, 2005
Organic sector has little to verify production numbers
by Sean Pratt, Western Producer, Saskatoon newsroom
Ask nearly anyone involved in organics how their sector is doing and they'll tell you it's clipping along at an annual growth rate of 15-20 percent.
Those growth statistics are trotted out at conferences, they appear in annual reports and have even found their way onto the federal government's Organic Production System Task Force web page.
But according to a leading provider of business intelligence for the international organic sector, the worldwide growth rate was about half that amount in 2004. "The growth was eight to 10 percent, with the largest increase observed in North America. There was also healthy growth in Europe," said Amarjit Sahota, the British corporate consultant for Organic Monitor. Ralph Martin, director of the Organic Agriculture Centre of Canada, said the discrepancy between the two estimates could be due to the fact that one is a global statistic while the other is a North American number.
"I think the market in Europe has not been growing as quickly over the last few years," said Martin. It could also be due to questionable data.
Like many others he has heard the growth rate in Canada is 20 percent, but he acknowledged there is no way to prove that because there is no statistical information in this country. "It's a real problem and somehow we do have to get better data," said Martin. The only organization making a concerted effort to track what is happening in the industry is Canadian Organic Growers.
Each year the association surveys the 36 certification bodies operating in Canada to get a bead on what's happening with organics.
The latest results compiled in December, which are always one year out of date, show there were 3,670 certified growers operating in Canada in 2004, up 11 percent from 2003 levels. There were also 742 certified processors and handlers, up 48 percent from 2003 and 1.2 million acres of certified crop and pastureland, up 24 percent from 2003. Anne Macey, who collects and compiles the statistics, said there is no way to calculate accurate sales figures or to confirm the 20 percent growth rate because major retailers like Loblaws refuse to divulge that information.
Even the data she can get her hands on is somewhat suspect because while some certifiers provide detailed numbers, others file sketchy reports. For instance, the 48 percent increase in processors and handlers is likely a bloated number because many Ontario firms weren't included in the 2003 survey results. The same goes for the acreage numbers.
"It looks like a considerable increase but then again it may have been that we didn't get it all last time," said Macey. Despite those misgivings her numbers are the only ones the industry has to fall back on because Statistics Canada tracks next to no organic data.
Stephanie Wells, Canadian liaison for the Organic Trade Association, said the top priority of her member companies is to get a federal regulation in place. Second on their list is to develop a source of reliable statistics.
"The problem is if we can't measure how big we are and track our growth, then we don't really have any credibility with government," she said.
Her organization has been in discussions with Agriculture Canada and Statistics Canada about setting up harmonization series or HS codes for certain organic products, which would enable the tracking of imports and exports of those commodities. The federal government will pick up the tab for the first five commodities. But the organic sector first has to prove there is a big enough export volume of the commodities to warrant an HS code. Therein lies the rub because many traders aren't willing to divulge their sales figures.
Martin said one of the more pressing reasons for collecting sales and export data is to provide conventional growers with answers they are looking for when considering whether to shift into organics.
It is not a decision to be taken lightly given the three-year transition period to become certified. But if the growth rate in organics is indeed 20 percent a year, it could be a worthwhile transformation.
"I would be much more secure in encouraging them to do that if I knew that the numbers were real," said Martin.
He also wants to uncover answers to other pressing questions. One of the statistics tossed around organic circles is that only 15 percent of the products sold in Canada are grown here. If that is true it is disturbing.
"Somehow we have to arrange for Canadian farmers to get a bigger share of that growing market," said Martin.
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Posted with permission of Western Producer http://www.producer.com/
